Quiknets blogs

Paddy Power’s odds against Ireland winning the rugby World Cup have gone out to 50-1, from 20-1, following poor performances against Namibia and Georgia (and Argentina’s win against France.)

But if you believe that Ireland can still go the whole way, then the intelligent bet is Not the 50-1, but a series of intermediate bets which will add up to much more than that. The numbers are worked out here.

Bet first on Ireland to beat France, at 7-2. If you believe we can win the Cup, then you’ve got to believe we can beat France, and, anyway, if we don’t beat France we’re unlikely to make the quarter final, or, if we do, we’re likely to be beaten there by New Zealand. So, beating France, and then Argentina, is a must, to avoid the All-Blacks. (There is a theoretical possibility that we could lose to France or Argentina and still avoid the Blacks at quarter final stage, but its too far-fetched, so, in reality, anyone taking Paddy Power’s offer of 50-1 to win the Cup has to be expecting us to win all remaining games)

But Can we beat France? The French, who put nearly 100 points on Namibia, who we struggled against, will be enormously motivated to win on their favourite pitch, in front of a demanding crowd, in a tournament hosted by them on their own territory and where they, in normal circumstances, have to fancy their chances of a place in the final, at least. They just can not afford to lose—it would be akin to a national disaster, a humiliation that could spark a recession !

So, how can little Ireland possibly hope to beat this talented, tough and motivated French team?  Well, the answer is…that’s a secret!. Eddie O’Sullivan has said it, a couple of times…they have a Plan!. They can’t reveal it, they haven’t revealed it, but they’ve been working on it for months. Some new moves, presumably, well rehearsed, some surprises, some creativity, playing in a manner to bewilder and run around the French! Read Eddie’s comments carefully, and the team’s body language…they know something…they even make veiled references to it…. and they can’t tell us…Meanwhile, they have been playing in a restrictive manner, one hand tied behind so to speak, unwilling to show these new moves, and they let us believe that they’re worried about their poor performance.

This commentator doesn’t know what the new moves might be..Although I suppose a lot more work in the back row, for which Reddan is brought on- Springer’s long passes will not be required this time, thanks…and Hickey also is being rested. Presumably the centers will be there primarily to defend- certainly an unexpected turn around- and Geordan Murphy is being kept, with more secret plays,  for the Argentine game. So, what to expect–a forward battle, it seems.

Yes…I’d take 7-2 against the Irish pack. In fact, Ireland to win by 6-10 points..that’s 17-1 !